Climate records Down-Under

2013 NZ's second hottest year on record - expert

Last year was New Zealand's second warmest on record, says climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger.

TVNZ,

6 January, 2014

After compiling data from 22 land stations and three islands, Dr Salinger said that he found the annual mean temperature was nearly one degree higher than average.

The Auckland-based weather expert also found that mean temperatures were well above average in the months of March, July, August and November and record mean temperatures were noted in Masterton, Omarama, Timaru, Invercargill and the Chatham Islands.

Further, Dr Salinger found that temperatures during the winter months last year were nearly 1.3 degrees above the long-term average, which made it the warmest winter since records were first kept 150 years ago.

The New Zealand region had only two cooler than average years - 2004 and 2009 - in the past decade, he said.

The 10-year mean temperature for 2004-2013 was 0.26 degrees above average, the highest on record.

Dr Salinger's findings follow the release of a report which claims 2013 was Australia's warmest year on record.

Last week, a report released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that area-averaged mean temperature for the nation last year was 1.2 degrees Celsius above average.

While preliminary data for the January-November period from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) indicates that the estimated global mean temperature for 2013 is 0.49 degrees Celsius above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14 degrees Celsius.

Dr Salinger said 2013 ranks as the sixth-warmest year since global records commenced in 1880.

He said no year since 1985 has recorded a below-average global mean temperature and nine of the ten warmest years have occurred in the past 12 years (2002-2013).

In New Zealand, he said the warmer weather could be put down to a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Dr Salinger also said that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) was negative, which favours more easterlies and north easterlies at times with above average temperatures.

"At the same time sea surface temperatures were above average by around one degree Celcius, especially surrounding the South Island and to the east," he said.

Further, Dr Salinger said ENSO neutral conditions are expected to persist at least until winter 2014, and negative IPO conditions are very likely to persist for the remainder of 2014.

"These conditions are presaged to bring above average temperatures of 0.2 to 0.6 degrees Celsius above average for the New Zealand region," he said.

Dr Salinger claimed New Zealand regional temperatures have warmed by 0.5 degrees Celsius since 1950 and over one degree overall.

"This is similar to what has occurred globally, and the general trend is expected to continue," he said.

Meanwhile, figures from the UK Met Office predict that the global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 degrees Celsius and 0.59 degrees Celsius above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017.

Record sparks hot debate on Tony Abbott's climate policy

Australia smashed its previous annual heat record in 2013, sparking renewed political debate about climate change.

the Age,

4 January, 2013

The Bureau of Meteorology on Friday confirmed that last year was the hottest nationwide in more than a century of standardised records, with mean temperatures 1.2 degrees above the 1961-90 average.

The 12 months easily eclipsed the previous annual record set in 2005, when mean temperatures were 1.03 degrees above average.

Every state and the Northern Territory recorded at least their fourth warmest year by mean temperatures, underscoring the breadth of 2013's unusual heat.

By maximums, all but Victoria and Tasmania recorded their hottest years, with nationwide maximums a full 1.45 degrees above the long-term average, shattering the previous record of 1.21 degrees in 2002.

Melbourne posted its third-hottest year, based on records going back to the 1850s, with maximums averaging 21.5 degrees, shy of 2007's record of 21.8 degrees. The city's minimums averaged 12.2 degrees, second only to 2007's 12.5 degrees.

The report sparked a heated political exchange, with Labor accusing Prime Minister Tony Abbott of remaining stuck in the belief that global warming was ''absolute crap'' - a remark he infamously made in 2009.

''The policy he has is a con job that you have when you think that climate change is absolute crap,'' acting Labor leader Penny Wong said.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop retorted that Senator Wong was being ''nonsensical'' and said the Coalition would meet Australia's 5 per cent carbon reduction pledge through its ''direct action'' policy.

The report also follows a fierce attack on climate change science this week by businessman Maurice Newman, the chairman of Mr Abbott's business advisory group. In a newspaper opinion article, Mr Newman branded climate change a ''scientific delusion''.

Acting Greens leader Richard Di Natale accused Mr Abbott of ''listening to people who are part of the tinfoil hat brigade''. Dr Di Natale said it went against all evidence for the government to unwind the carbon tax. ''The experts right around the world are telling him loudly and clearly that we've got a big problem on our hands and we've got to start taking action to fix it.''

Inland heat

Statewide, Victoria had its third-warmest year, with mean temperatures 1.04 degrees above the 1961-90 average used as the benchmark. It was Tasmania's sixth warmest.

“Victoria and Tasmania had a relatively cool finish to the year – both were below average in November – that just took the edge off things a bit,” said Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology.

A blistering start to 2013 was followed by a series of “warm waves” that swept across much of the country at intervals of four to six weeks, and have continued into 2014.

Moomba in South Australia recording 49.3 degrees on Thursday, while Birdsville in Queensland clocked up 48.6 degrees.

Walgett, meanwhile, reached 49.1 degrees on Friday, the highest for NSW since 1939, the Bureau of Meteorology's Dr Trewin said. Other towns to set records on Friday include Moree, Tamworth and Armidale in NSW, and St George and Roma in Queensland.

The hot air mass is slowly shifting east. Brisbane may challenge its record high of 43.2 degrees on Saturday, with 41 degrees forecast.

"That (forecast) would be factoring in some possibility of a sea breeze," said the bureau's Dr Trewin. "If the sea breeze fails, anything could happen."

No El Nino

For 2013, the exceptional heat has been attributed to a delayed monsoon, record warm waters around the country and fewer-than-usual cold fronts.

Inland Queensland and NSW “is also the core of the area that is in significant drought at the moment”, said the bureau’s Dr Trewin: “Because soil moisture is lower than normal, you have less capacity for moisture at ground level cooling the air slightly.”

Climate experts, though, have been surprised national temperature records were broken by such large margins not least because key weather patterns such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific remained in a neutral phase.

“Australia has set a new record-high temperature in a period when there’s been no El Nino event (and) global temperatures have not increased so rapidly,” said David Karoly, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne. “So this is particularly unusual.”

Australia’s records “cannot be explained by natural variability alone," Professor Karoly said. "This event could not have happened without increasing greenhouse gases, without climate change."

Unusual weather

Unusual weather patterns have played havoc for some farmers – and backyard potterers - in other ways. September, for instance, posted Australia’s most exceptional heat.

Nationally, maximums were 3.41 degrees higher than average, including 2.74 degrees in Victoria and 5.39 degrees in SA – the most for any state in any month.

While mild by mid-summer standards, the warmth prompted “accelerated or premature development of plant and crops”, the bureau noted last year. Such growth exposed crops to late-season frosts across several states.

Professor Will Steffen, a climate scientist at the Australian National University and a member of the Climate Council, said temperature trends have been “sharply upward” since the 1960s and predicted 2013 will look a lot less remarkable in years to come.

“When you accumulate more heat in the atmosphere, the odds are you’re going to see more high-temperatures records broken,” Professor Steffen said.

“If we keep emitting (carbon dioxide) at the rates we are now, in another three or four decades, 2013 will look like an average year - perhaps even a cool year.”