Heat and Cold - and Wet

BRUTAL COLD IS ON THE WAY FOR THE UNITED STATES

Now that I’m getting the support of the forecast models and we’re much closer to the event, I want to show you what the models are predicting. In fact, if what the forecast models are predicting for the last week of January going into February comes to fruition, then we have a historic Arctic outbreak on our way that would give us brutal cold. The Canadian model also supports a big East Coast storm later in January, which I really think could happen. From the way things are starting to look, this cold pattern could lock in, which would continue into February, and we could also move into a very stormy pattern. Many of you have commented on the Facebook page (yes, I take the time to read almost all of your comments and messages) that you were disappointed that you didn’t get any snow with this last Arctic outbreak. I’m really thinking things will be different this time. No, I’m not saying that Miami, FL will get snow, but I do think many areas in the Southeast and up the East Coast will.

The pattern that is setting up is classic for extreme cold and storminess in the East and well-above average temperatures and dry conditions in the West. When you get this kind of ridging in the western U.S. and over Alaska and blocking over Greenland, the cold in the East is going to be brutal. A piece of the polar vortex is going to split and move south again (possibly further south than the last time) and be responsible for yet another brutal Arctic outbreak of cold air. I’m thinking that this cold air could end up even being more potent further south than the last time, so places even into Florida will end up with brutal cold. The biggest difference this time is that the cold will likely stay around for a long time, and ridging is going to prevent the polar vortex from re-establishing itself over the North Pole. In other words, this cold may not go anywhere for days, even weeks, and we could be setting up a pattern that has not been seen in decades.

Of course, there are some uncertainties, but I am highly confident that this cold blast is going to occur. I think the worst of the cold could be focused east of the Mississippi, but that will not be the only areas that are cold. I’m also watching what is currently occurring over the Bering Sea, and there are strong indications that this cold won’t go anywhere in February. While there will be some fluctuations, I really don’t see the eastern U.S. fluctuating back into a warmer pattern. You’re going to have your cold spells, and then you’re going to have your REALLY cold spells! Again, the East Coast needs to keep their eye on the potential for a big winter storm later in the month, and I will detail that more in another article.

Since the GFS has its act together for now as far as predicting the cold, I want to show you it’s ensemble. Most of its members have really cold air establishing itself over the eastern U.S., which is remarkable that we’re getting that kind of agreement. If it were just the operational model showing this, then I wouldn’t even bother showing it. The European and Canadian models are also in agreement with predicting very cold temperatures later in the month.

On January 22th, the GFS ensemble really establishes the cold over the eastern third of the nation.

Fast-forward to January 25th, and you still have really cold air over the eastern U.S.

Then we move into January 28th, and things just look brutal!

Now, take a look at the European ensemble average temperature anomaly for January 26th through January 30th. This shows extreme cold! These are the expected temperature departures from average, and given that we’re in the heart of winter, this kind of cold would be very dangerous!!

Of course, I’ll continue to keep you updated! If I don’t have time to post on the site in the next couple of days, I’ll definitely be posting on the Facebook page. Please give it a like if you haven’t already.

Wildfires Rage Near Los Angeles

PHOTOS: Floods And Landslides In Southeast Asia Displace Hundreds Of Thousands

Think Progress,

16 January, 2014

"PHOTOS: Floods And Landslides In Southeast Asia Displace H

A man in Jakarta attempts to cross a flooded street.

CREDIT: AAAAP IMAGES

At least 13 people are dead and over 40,000 forced from their homes after torrential rains, which first started Tuesday, caused flooding and landslides in northern Indonesia.

The brunt of the storms was felt in North Sulawesi, a province on the island of Sulawesi, where cars and houses were swept away by overflowing rivers and two people are missing. Another 1,000 people have been cut off from rescue workers after floods destroyed a bridge.

A man tries to stay out of the floodwaters in Jakarta by climbing a fence.

CREDIT: AP IMAGES

The rainy season in Indonesia which last from October through April has already killed dozens and displaced tens of thousands elsewhere in the archipelago.

A passenger van attempts to navigate the street.

CREDIT: AP IMAGES

Four people have also been reported dead in the capital city of Jakarta. Late last month five people were killed and another 5,000 displaced in Java. In Sumatra, at the beginning of December, nine people were killed in a landslide.

A woman struggles through chest-high water with her children.

CREDIT: AAA AAAP IMAGES

While Indonesia is no stranger to flooding, national disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho called the flooding”massive” and the death toll is expected to rise as heavy rains continue over the next several days.

CREDIT: AP IMAGES

Just a little over 300 miles from Northern Sulawesi, people on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao are enduring similar soggy misery. The floods and landslides have claimed 26 lives and displaced around 200,000. The country is still reeling from the devastation of Typhoon Haiyan which swept ashore back in November, killing over 6,000, causing an estimated $1.5 billion of damage and displacing millions.

Elsewhere in the region, scientists are warning that a warmer Pacific could cause stronger typhoons for East Asia in the future. Rising sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific which are helping to strengthen the Walker circulation system are making it more likely that cyclones will follow the line of the East Asian coast, from the South China Sea upward, before making landfall in China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula, when they will be at maximum strength.

One of the lead researchers, Professor Chang-Hoi Ho, from Seoul National University in South Korea, said in a press release that “Noticeable increases of greenhouse gases over the globe could influence rising sea surface temperature and change large-scale atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific, which could enhance the intensity of tropical cyclones hitting land over East Asia.”

Violent storm sweeps over Rio de Janeiro, flooding streets and stoking mudslide fears

A violent lightning and rain storm has swept across Rio de Janeiro, flooding streets and knocking out power in some neighborhoods.

Fox News,

16 January, 2014

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Sirens warning residents of the danger of mudslides sounded in several areas of the city.

Each year across Brazil, hundreds of people die in mudslides, almost all happening in ramshackle slums often precariously built up steep hillsides.

Rio's domestic airport shut down for about an hour during Thursday's storm as did ferries that take commuters from Rio to the neighboring of Niteroi.

The storm passed after 90 minutes, but there was no word on when power would be restored for tens of thousands of residents.

And some context - 

Climate Matters: The 55th Coldest Day Since 1900

WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas goes over the cold snap that affected much of the US in the first half of January. But what about the other half of the nation? California had near record highs and the driest year on record. The first half of January was well below average for much of the US, and like flipping a switch, it trends warmer than average. Weather whiplash anyone?