Friday 17 January 2014

The Australian heat wave

Australia: Heat predicted to kill hundreds
Hundreds of Victorians will die as a result of this week's heatwave, a leading climate researcher predicts.

A thermal image at the corner of Russell and Bourke streets, Melbourne, between 3-4pm on December 8, 2011, when the day's top temperature was 32.4. Numbers on this photo indicate degrees celcius. Photo: Jason Dowling


16 January, 2014


Professor Neville Nicholls, from Monash University, said the state's mortality rate was likely to jump by at least 50 per cent as the mercury climbed above 40 degrees for three days running and was forecast to reach 44 degrees on Friday.

"There will be a substantial increase in people passing away, particularly among vulnerable groups, who tend to be the elderly and those whose health is largely compromised by other illnesses or the drugs they take," he said.






Professor Nicholls said the spike in the mortality rate would not merely represent deaths that may have happened in the short-term regardless of the weather.
"There isn't very much evidence that the heat causes just a short-term advancement of mortality," he said.

"The bulk of people who pass away or who end up in hospital, it's a real increase in the total numbers."

In 2009, Professor Nicholls correctly foretold that the heatwave preceding the Black Saturday bushfires was responsible for hundreds of deaths.
Victoria's health authorities later estimated that the heatwave might have contributed to up to 374 deaths.

Professor Nicholls said that despite effective heat warning systems introduced by government in the years after Black Saturday, especially at a local level, the death toll from this week would surpass that of 2009.

Ambulance Victoria manager of emergency management Paul Holman said that as of noon on Thursday, paramedics had attended 65 cardiac arrests since Monday and experienced an eight-fold increase in patients suffering heat exhaustion to nearly 250 people.

"We were called to 26 cardiac arrests yesterday, which is double what we would normally attend. Between midnight and midday today, we were called to another 16," Mr Holman said.

He said Ambulance Victoria's overall workload had increased almost 20 per cent in the past three days.

"It's the cumulative impact of the run of hot days followed by nights where the temperature has been in the high 20s."

Professor Nicholls, who worked at the Bureau of Meteorology for 35 years, said mortality surged when overnight temperatures did not fall.

"In Melbourne, the data suggests that just one hot day by itself doesn't do much, but if it stays hot overnight that's when the real damage is done," he said.

Research by himself and colleagues had found that there was an increase in deaths on any day with an average temperature of 30 degrees for the whole 24-hour period.

Heatwave victims were quick to perish and their deaths were usually recorded within days of the extreme weather.

The Heart Foundation has warned heart disease sufferers that heatwaves claim more lives than any other natural hazard in Australia.

Heart Foundation Victoria's director of cardiovascular health programs, Kellie-Ann Jolly, said people with heart disease were at particular risk during heatwaves.

"Sweating leads to dehydration, which reduces the volume of blood. This makes the heart pump harder in order to circulate the reduced amount of blood around the body," she said.

The changes could overwhelm them and lead to a heart attack, she said.
Victoria's Chief Health Officer, Rosemary Lester, said vulnerable people needed to take extra care to stay cool and hydrated during the next 24 hours.

If you are in a vulnerable group, keep your airconditioner on,” she said.

We need to be mindful of usage of electricity but we need to strike that balance of moderating our usage and making sure that we're protecting our most vulnerable people.”



Heatwave continues to fry Australia
Adelaide has reached energy- sapping highs, and Melbourne has now endured its longest run of above-40C days in a century. Inland areas of SA, Victoria and NSW have seen the mercury reach as high as 48C



17 January, 2014


As Adelaide yesterday became the hottest city on the planet for a day, the week-long heatwave that has gripped the west and southeast of the continent continues to fry Australia.

Temperatures again hovered in the mid-to-high 40s in Adelaide and Melbourne, and across much of inland South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, stretching emergency services to their limits.

Worse may be in store. While the weekend is expected to bring relief with a cool southerly change, fire and health authorities fear today could be their most critical period as strong, gusty winds drive through the furnace ahead of the new front.

Fire authorities have also warned that the heatwave has stripped all moisture from bush and grassland, creating a volatile, dangerous tinder for the remaining six weeks of a blazing summer.

And this may be just the harbinger of deadlier summers ahead.

The Climate Council, now a private organisation after its federal predecessor, the Climate Commission, was axed by the new Coalition Government, warns that Australia is facing hotter, more frequent, longer-lasting heatwaves as the planet warms.


The council yesterday released an interim report on heatwaves, showing that between 1971 and 2008 the number of hot days had doubled and the frequency and duration of heatwaves had increased.

A heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days during which temperatures reach into the top 10 per cent of recordings for a given time of year.

Australia this week has easily met the definition, with many areas enduring four or five days above 40C.

Adelaide has reached record levels, and Melbourne has now endured its longest run of above-40C days in a century.

Inland areas of SA, Victoria and NSW have seen the mercury reach as high as 48C.

The council's report said the frequency of heatwaves would increase significantly, and last on average up to three days longer than at present. Maximum temperatures would also rise.

"As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels, more heat is trapped in the lower atmosphere," the council said.

"This increases the likelihood that hot weather will occur and that heatwaves will become longer and more intense."

The continent's southeast would be the hardest hit, including Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney.

The council said emergency, health and medical services needed to start planning now for the increasing intensity of summers ahead.

Services are already struggling to cope. Hospitals in SA and Victoria have reported a surge in heat-related admissions, health and welfare services are being pushed to ensure the safety of the young, the aged and the chronically ill, and train services have been hit.

All kindergartens and childcare centres in Adelaide were closed and power supplies in SA and Victoria have been disrupted by the surge in demand for air conditioning and increased demands on the national grid from other states.

In Victoria, Premier Denis Napthene urged people to cut electricity use to a minimum as peak electricity demand in the two states neared record levels.

Power authorities have warned of more potential cuts that could affect 100,000 Victorians and tens of thousands more in SA.

Fire services have been fighting hundreds of outbreaks in SA, Victoria and NSW, many started by lightning strikes, with a 20km-wide blaze near the western SA coastal town of Ceduna, and several in Victoria potentially threatening towns in the Wimmera and Mallee regions.


Fire crews brace for fifth day of heat







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