Australia:
Heat predicted to kill hundreds
A thermal image at the corner of Russell and Bourke streets, Melbourne, between 3-4pm on December 8, 2011, when the day's top temperature was 32.4. Numbers on this photo indicate degrees celcius. Photo: Jason Dowling
Hundreds
of Victorians will die as a result of this week's heatwave, a leading
climate researcher predicts.
A thermal image at the corner of Russell and Bourke streets, Melbourne, between 3-4pm on December 8, 2011, when the day's top temperature was 32.4. Numbers on this photo indicate degrees celcius. Photo: Jason Dowling
16 January, 2014
Professor Neville Nicholls, from Monash University, said the state's mortality rate was likely to jump by at least 50 per cent as the mercury climbed above 40 degrees for three days running and was forecast to reach 44 degrees on Friday.
"There will be a substantial increase in people passing away, particularly among vulnerable groups, who tend to be the elderly and those whose health is largely compromised by other illnesses or the drugs they take," he said.
Professor
Nicholls said the spike in the mortality rate would not merely
represent deaths that may have happened in the short-term regardless
of the weather.
"There
isn't very much evidence that the heat causes just a short-term
advancement of mortality," he said.
"The
bulk of people who pass away or who end up in hospital, it's a real
increase in the total numbers."
In
2009, Professor Nicholls correctly foretold that the heatwave
preceding the Black Saturday bushfires was responsible for hundreds
of deaths.
Victoria's
health authorities later estimated that the heatwave might have
contributed to up to 374 deaths.
Professor
Nicholls said that despite effective heat warning systems introduced
by government in the years after Black Saturday, especially at a
local level, the death toll from this week would surpass that of
2009.
Ambulance
Victoria manager of emergency management Paul Holman said that as of
noon on Thursday, paramedics had attended 65 cardiac arrests since
Monday and experienced an eight-fold increase in patients suffering
heat exhaustion to nearly 250 people.
"We
were called to 26 cardiac arrests yesterday, which is double what we
would normally attend. Between midnight and midday today, we were
called to another 16," Mr Holman said.
He
said Ambulance Victoria's overall workload had increased almost 20
per cent in the past three days.
"It's
the cumulative impact of the run of hot days followed by nights where
the temperature has been in the high 20s."
Professor
Nicholls, who worked at the Bureau of Meteorology for 35 years, said
mortality surged when overnight temperatures did not fall.
"In
Melbourne, the data suggests that just one hot day by itself doesn't
do much, but if it stays hot overnight that's when the real damage is
done," he said.
Research
by himself and colleagues had found that there was an increase in
deaths on any day with an average temperature of 30 degrees for the
whole 24-hour period.
Heatwave
victims were quick to perish and their deaths were usually recorded
within days of the extreme weather.
The
Heart Foundation has warned heart disease sufferers that heatwaves
claim more lives than any other natural hazard in Australia.
Heart
Foundation Victoria's director of cardiovascular health programs,
Kellie-Ann Jolly, said people with heart disease were at particular
risk during heatwaves.
"Sweating
leads to dehydration, which reduces the volume of blood. This makes
the heart pump harder in order to circulate the reduced amount of
blood around the body," she said.
The
changes could overwhelm them and lead to a heart attack, she said.
Victoria's
Chief Health Officer, Rosemary Lester, said vulnerable people needed
to take extra care to stay cool and hydrated during the next 24
hours.
“If
you are in a vulnerable group, keep your airconditioner on,” she
said.
“We
need to be mindful of usage of electricity but we need to strike that
balance of moderating our usage and making sure that we're protecting
our most vulnerable people.”
Heatwave
continues to fry Australia
Adelaide
has reached energy- sapping highs, and Melbourne has now endured its
longest run of above-40C days in a century. Inland areas of SA,
Victoria and NSW have seen the mercury reach as high as 48C
17
January, 2014
As
Adelaide yesterday became the hottest city on the planet for a day,
the week-long heatwave that has gripped the west and southeast of the
continent continues to fry Australia.
Temperatures
again hovered in the mid-to-high 40s in Adelaide and Melbourne, and
across much of inland South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales,
stretching emergency services to their limits.
Worse
may be in store. While the weekend is expected to bring relief with a
cool southerly change, fire and health authorities fear today could
be their most critical period as strong, gusty winds drive through
the furnace ahead of the new front.
Fire
authorities have also warned that the heatwave has stripped all
moisture from bush and grassland, creating a volatile, dangerous
tinder for the remaining six weeks of a blazing summer.
And
this may be just the harbinger of deadlier summers ahead.
The
Climate Council, now a private organisation after its federal
predecessor, the Climate Commission, was axed by the new Coalition
Government, warns that Australia is facing hotter, more frequent,
longer-lasting heatwaves as the planet warms.
The
council yesterday released an interim report on heatwaves, showing
that between 1971 and 2008 the number of hot days had doubled and the
frequency and duration of heatwaves had increased.
A
heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days during which
temperatures reach into the top 10 per cent of recordings for a given
time of year.
Australia
this week has easily met the definition, with many areas enduring
four or five days above 40C.
Adelaide
has reached record levels, and Melbourne has now endured its longest
run of above-40C days in a century.
Inland
areas of SA, Victoria and NSW have seen the mercury reach as high as
48C.
The
council's report said the frequency of heatwaves would increase
significantly, and last on average up to three days longer than at
present. Maximum temperatures would also rise.
"As
greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere from the
burning of fossil fuels, more heat is trapped in the lower
atmosphere," the council said.
"This
increases the likelihood that hot weather will occur and that
heatwaves will become longer and more intense."
The
continent's southeast would be the hardest hit, including Adelaide,
Melbourne and Sydney.
The
council said emergency, health and medical services needed to start
planning now for the increasing intensity of summers ahead.
Services
are already struggling to cope. Hospitals in SA and Victoria have
reported a surge in heat-related admissions, health and welfare
services are being pushed to ensure the safety of the young, the aged
and the chronically ill, and train services have been hit.
All
kindergartens and childcare centres in Adelaide were closed and power
supplies in SA and Victoria have been disrupted by the surge in
demand for air conditioning and increased demands on the national
grid from other states.
In
Victoria, Premier Denis Napthene urged people to cut electricity use
to a minimum as peak electricity demand in the two states neared
record levels.
Power
authorities have warned of more potential cuts that could affect
100,000 Victorians and tens of thousands more in SA.
Fire
services have been fighting hundreds of outbreaks in SA, Victoria and
NSW, many started by lightning strikes, with a 20km-wide blaze near
the western SA coastal town of Ceduna, and several in Victoria
potentially threatening towns in the Wimmera and Mallee regions.
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